That’s the word from a story at CommonDreams.org by John Atcheson (link to follow). On numerous occasions I’ve noted that the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in 2007 grossly understated the impacts of the warming. In Atcheson’s account, we get a very good explanation of why that happened and why it will happen again when the new IPCC effort is released in 2014.

Based on leaks of the proposed 2014 report, Atcheson notes that “the rate and pace of warming, and its consequences” will be “substantially” understated.

Why? Because the IPCC uses only peer reviewed work and a consensus process. That results in long lead-times and what the author calls “a least common denominator data set.” Bottom line: “The latest research and any research that challenges established theory is left on the cutting room floor.”

Atcheson cites examples. I’ll borrow two before sending you to his full report, which is worth reading.

He notes that the IPCC 2007 report said sea level rise would not exceed 59 centimeters. That was what the conventional wisdom held at that time. But even at the time the ’07 report was released, researchers were already saying sea level increases could be as much as 3 meters. That’s almost 5 times that 59 centimeter figure.

Of particular note, I think, is that methane releases from melting permafrost and clathrates–frozen molecules of the potent heat-trapping gas–will not even be considered in the 2014 report. Why should those methane releases be included? Atcheson notes that those releases could add more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit to global temps.

Here’s the link:

https://www.commondreams.org/view/2013/09/03-0